There are plans already
under consideration for the colonisation of Mars. Bases on the Moon,
mining the asteroid fields, exploring Titan (Saturn’s moon) for
life, all are on the horizon.
To be honest, it’s
all quite exciting, both in real life and in terms of the sci-fi that
can be written about such things. Scientific advancement, commercial
gain and military advantage could all play a role in the near term
exploration of the solar system.
On the scientific
front, Mars and Titan present the most intriguing prospects. Mars is
nearer, although getting there will still take months. Establishing a
base will require substantial resources, but modern technology does
offer some short-cuts that even a few years ago would have been
impossible. For example, 3D printers mean that you don’t need every
precise structure or tool to be carried with the human crew. Printing
materials could be sent on ahead with unmanned or robotic
expeditions, and future blueprints for improved structures could be
sent from Earth and printed on Mars.
Any trip is believed to
be one way, because of the lower gravity on Mars that would create
health problems for anyone returning to Earth (not to mention
prolonged exposure to zero-G on the way to Mars). For a long term
settlement, a stable gene pool would be needed (which would also tie
in neatly with the generally international approach towards space
exploration). Of course, not everyone has to go at once. Farming
would require internal agriculture (cultivating Mars would require it
to be terraformed). Energy supply and other fuel sources is an
interesting one. Solar panels could add some juice but I’m not sure
if that’d be sufficient. Due to long flight times and the potential
for mishaps, sustainability would have to be the goal. If the colony
were reliant on fuel sent from Earth then it could easily find itself
cut short.
There are diamonds the
size of cars in Jupiter. Unfortunately, fishing them out is
technically problematic. However, the delicious deposits contained
within the asteroid belt are altogether more accessible.
In my short story Dead
Weight (in Explorations: Through the Wormhole), I had to rework the
early draft because I’d wrongly believed the Mars-Jupiter asteroid
belt was some sort of Star Wars maelstrom. It’s not. There are big
open spaces between the various rocks and, although you’d still
need to be careful, mining them is eminently possible in the
near(ish) future. The bigger problem is likely to be how you divvy up
fairly, between either companies or nations, the resources of the
asteroid belt.
An international
company could be the way to go. So far, after the 1960s space race
between superpowers, space exploration has generally been along
rather friendlier lines than terrestrial politics. Whether that
continues remains to be seen.
Mining could probably
be done largely by robots, which would dramatically reduce the cost
and complexity of operations. Humans are a pain in the arse to move
through space. They need oxygen, food, water, psychological
well-being (an increasingly important factor for longer flights),
somewhere to get rid of the waste they produce daily, and if you land
them too quickly they turn into meat paste (landing a robot too hard
will break it, but they won’t leave behind upset relatives).
Titan is a moon of
Saturn, and the only other place in the solar system where liquid
water seems to exist. This presents the best possible chance of
finding life in our near neighbourhood, which is very exciting until
you remember that also means it makes an impending apocalypse a lot
likelier. Leaving aside the Fermi Paradox and the Great Filter, life
on Titan could also present a serious pathogen problem. It is,
nevertheless, a fascinating prospect.
Any visit to Titan
would be much harder than visiting Mars. For a start, it’s a lot
further away. That means more time in zero-G and more time floating
in a tin can, which will increase physical and psychological effects.
Secondly, a mission would probably be about collecting samples and
the like. Now, you could do this just with robots. That’s cheaper
and safer. But humans are smarter than robots and more adaptable. The
gravity, however, is less than half that of Mars. So, if you’re
sending a human, that’s moving from prolonged zero-G to 0.14g. Very
much a one way trip for something organic and squishy (it also raises
the question of what happens if you actually found something
advanced, say a space-donkey, and tried bringing it back to Earth.
The affect would probably be the same as if you tried moving an
Earth-donkey to a planet with 7g).
However, the Moon has
surface gravity of 0.16g. That’s a seventh higher (akin to a human
moving to a world with 1.14g). You’d notice, but it wouldn’t be
horrendous. Species (or returning humans) could go to a lunar base
for experimentation. No need to try and establish a permanent base on
Titan, the gravity’s practically identical, and it’s miles (and
then some) closer to Earth for fuel, communication, supplies and so
on.
Most of the above
assumes that we continue to have relatively friendly space
adventures. However, the history of the human race is one riddled
with conflict. Any nation that acquired dominance of space would have
huge advantages. Asteroid-mining would give a resource and commercial
advantage, access to the Moon, Mars and Titan would offer scientific
progress denied to lesser nations, and the military aspect of
near-Earth domination would be significant.
There are a number of
existing or near-term weapons projects that operate from or in space.
Tungsten rods operate by firing a rod of tungsten (as you may have
guessed) at the Earth. The kinetic energy of it hitting the planet is
immense, but also highly localised. It’ll annihilate a house, and
the next door neighbour will be fine. (Sidenote, all ICBMs have
nuclear warheads because a smaller payload would have less
destructive potential than the kinetic energy of the missile itself).
Masers are also in
development currently and would probably work in space. The problem
with space warfare is that damage would commonly include explosive
decompression and total destruction of the ‘enemy’. It’s hard
to think of anything other than a war of annihilation (you might
think of an EMP to knock out the electrics, but do that and how long
will the oxygen and warmth last?).
Hopefully we won’t
see military nonsense in space, but we’ll find out in the coming
decades.
Thaddeus
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